31
January 31st, 2012

Weekly brief

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France

expanded

President Nicolas Sarkozy appeared on eight television stations on Sunday, January 29, to outline a number of proposals to boost France’s economy, the Guardian reported. In the interview, which was watched by a record 16.5 million French viewers, Sarkozy proposed to raise the nation’s “value-added” consumption tax (TVA) by 1.6 percent to 21.2 percent, adding to a 0.1 percent tax on financial transactions and a 2-percent increase to taxes on financial profits, according to the New York Times and le JDD. Sarkozy also hinted at the lack of competition created by the nation’s 35-hour work week, a political accomplishment of his rival Socialist Party. Assuring spectators that the speech came not as a campaign move but as the action of an acting president, Sarkozy did not officially announce his intention to seek re-election in April, as expected by many, but instead hinted that he would make a formal announcement in February or March, according to le Nouvel Observateur.

 Following Sarkozy’s proposals on Sunday, January 29, Socialist presidential candidate François Hollande announced while on the campaign on Monday, January 30, that he would undo the proposed increase to the nation’s consumption tax if elected, as the poll leader continued to build up his campaign this past week, le Parisien and TF1 reported. Hollande, who officially presented the platform of his candidacy on Sunday, January 22, answered criticisms of his lack of a detailed fiscal plan on Thursday, January 26, by presenting plans to reduce tax breaks for the wealthy and large corporations to boost investment in small businesses, education, and the creation of new jobs, according to Bloomberg. While Hollande has consistently been ahead in polls, Sarkozy’s campaign got a boost from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose party announced that she would campaign for the not-yet-declared candidate Sarkozy in fear that a swing to the left could ruin efforts by Merkel and Sarkozy to promote greater austerity across Europe, as explored by the Wall Street Journal.

 A week after four French soldiers were killed by a “Taliban infiltrator” of the Afghan military, President Nicolas Sarkozy announced on Friday, January 27, that the nation would withdraw its troops from the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan by 2013, a year earlier than projected by NATO agreements, the New York Times and la Libération reported. Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who was in Paris that day and laid a wreath at the Arc de Triomphe’s Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in commemoration of the soldiers killed, agreed that the accelerated departure and return of power to Afghan forces would be best for Afghanistan, according to the AP. Sarkozy also announced that French training of Afghan forces, which had been suspended following the shooting on January 20, would resume on Saturday, January 28, having been assured that appropriate security measures had been taken by Afghan allies, according to RFI.

 French President Nicolas Sarkozy welcomed on Thursday, January 26, Alassane Ouattara, president of Côte d’Ivoire, for a three-day visit after French troops helped to dismantle the regime of Laurent Gbagbo, who was declared the loser of November 2010 elections but who refused to concede to Ouattara, the declared victor, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. Ouattara and Sarkozy signed a pact for military cooperation on Thursday, January 26, before the Ivorian president reassured French industries on Friday, January 27, that peace had returned to his nation and encouraged French companies to return to the Côte d’Ivoire where French companies employ 40,000 people, according to AFP and la Libération. With an anticipated growth to GDP of 8.5 percent in 2012, Côte d’Ivoire is one of the most economically promising nations in francophone West Africa, according to le Point.

United States

Contenders for the Republican Party’s candidacy for the November presidential elections faced off in Florida during the past week in preparation for the party’s fourth contest of the primary season, set for Tuesday, January 31. After winning only one of the first three contests, after an initial victory in Iowa was corrected in favor of contender Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, long considered the frontrunner in the race, spent the week re-establishing himself in the first “big state” vote, courting Hispanic voters and finding himself in a perpetual battle with Newt Gingrich, who won the last primary in South Carolina by a considerable margin, according to TF1 and le Nouvel Observateur. Two polls released on Sunday, January 29, showed Romney with a comfortable lead over closest contender Gingrich, one giving him a 15-point lead and the other 11 points, la Libération reported. Despite the results so far, all four remaining candidates, including Ron Paul, have vowed to stay in the race in hopes of gaining momentum in the coming weeks and gaining support and delegate votes from forthcoming proportional primaries and caucuses, according to CNN. While the Republican candidacy is presumably still up for grabs, a Gallup poll released on Monday, January 30, showed that Romney stood the best chance in a faceoff with incumbent President Barack Obama, polling slightly above the president, while Gingrich polled at 40 percent against 54 percent of votes for Obama, le Monde and 20 Minutes reported.

 While Republicans battled in Florida, President Barack Obama swung into full campaign mode beginning with his final State of the Union address on Tuesday, January 24, before November’s elections. With the speech covering a wide array of issues, the crux of the annual address was to promote greater economic fairness, calling for programs creating greater equality between the nation’s rich and middle and lower classes, as covered by the la Croix, the New York Times and la Libération. Following the address, Obama hit the road, spending the rest of the week visiting five states considered pivotal in his re-election efforts, arriving in Iowa on Wednesday, January 25, before heading onto Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and Michigan, according to RFI and NPR. In his appearances, Obama assured potential voters that the economy was getting back on track, discussed plans for continued job creation and continued to call for programs that promote equality, such as a solution to the ever-growing cost of college tuition, as covered by le Parisien and the LA Times.

 The Pentagon released a preview of budget cuts on Thursday, January 26, to be made official next month, as part of a plan to cut $487 billion in defense spending during the next decade, 20 Minutes reported. The cuts reflected a commitment to growing American military presence in the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East while reducing ground troops and military bases in the United States. A provisional budget for 2013, to be officially released February 13, will ask for $525 billion, down from $531 billion in 2012, the first time since the attacks of September 11, 2011, that a military budget has been decreased from the previous year, according to le Nouvel Observateur. The Christian Science Monitor looked at the branches of the U.S. military that came out ahead, such as the Navy with increases to accommodate a greater presence in the Pacific, and those that lost ground, such as the Army, whose troops are expected to drop from 570,000 to 490,000 in the coming  years.

 The Occupy movement once again made headlines this week as demonstrators in two cities faced off with local authorities.  In Oakland, California, about 400 were arrested during the weekend, when Oakland’s City Hall was vandalized by protestors who broke windows and burned flags outside, as covered by CNN and le Nouvel Observateur. In Washington, D.C., Occupy members gathered outside the five-star Alfalfa Club hotel on Saturday, January 28, while notable Washingtonians, including President Barack Obama, dined inside. They were protesting announcements of the expulsion of tents set up in McPherson Square, blocks from the White House, according to TF1.  One protester was subdued by taser and arrested on Sunday, January 29, but the scene remained relatively calm as the deadline to vacate at noon on Monday, January 30, came and went, as covered by la Libération and the Washington Post.

 

Business and Economics

European Union leaders gathered in Brussels on Monday, January 23, for their first summit of the year in hopes of making progress toward addressing the European debt crisis, for further talks on a deficit-control treaty being promoted heavily by Germany, and to the finalize the conditions of a €500-billion rescue fund, 20 Minutes reported. While the summit aimed to advance collaboration between the 27 E.U. members and the 17 nations using the common currency, lingering uncertainties about Greek debt plagued discussions and hindered consensus, as covered by Bloomberg and le Nouvel Observateur. An inability to agree on a complex swap of Greek debt drove down European banks’ shares, as European markets saw a two-week low at closing on Monday, January 30, according to Reuters.

 After its first policymaking meeting of the year, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced in a press conference on Wednesday, January 25, that interest rates would remain near zero through 2014, prolonging previous predictions as unemployment is expected to stay high over the coming three years, the LA Times and the Washington Post reported. Bernanke said unemployment would remain steady at the current level of 8.5 percent through the year and would make its way down to between 6.7 and 7.6 percent by the end of 2014. In projecting its policy for the coming years, the Fed announced it would fix the target inflation rate at 2 percent, according to le Figaro. While unemployment remains a key issue for the United States, the Labor Department announced on Friday, January 27, figures showing that the nation’s GDP grew 2.8 percent in the last quarter of 2011, projecting that the nation’s economy was beginning to pick up again after stalling for much of last year, according to the Washington Post.

 Two weeks after Standard & Poor’s cut the sovereign-debt rating of nine European countries, including France, and the European Financial Stability Facility, fellow rating agency Fitch cut its ratings of five European nations on Friday, January 27, le Figaro and Reuters reported. Citing short-term vulnerabilities to financial and monetary shocks, Fitch downgraded its rating of Belgium, Spain, Italy, Slovenia and Cyprus, warning that there was a 50-percent chance it could make future downgrades in the next two years. Debt bond sales across the continent were expected to surpass €33 billion, according to Bloomberg.

 French Prime Minister François Fillon announced on Monday, January 30, that the government was revising projected economic growth for 2012 down from its previous estimate of 1 percent established in November to 0.5 percent, le Point and Ouest-France reported. Fillon announced that the lower growth would mean 5 billion less in revenue for France in 2012, though he emphasized that austerity measures and taxes to financial transactions would “reabsorb” the loss, according to the Washington Post. The lowered estimate came after the International Monetary Fund predicted a 0.2-percent growth for France in 2012 last week, according to le Monde.

 

International

As violence continued to sweep across Syria and closer to the capital of Damascus, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé and Britain’s Foreign Secretary William Hague made plans to head to New York on Tuesday, January 31, to push forward efforts by the Arab League to promote a United Nations resolution condemning the violent oppression of anti-government protesters in Syria, TF1 and TIME reported. With U.S. Secretary of State echoing sentiments to support the people of Syria, representatives of the Arab League will be on hand to try to bolster support from hesitant Security Council members China and Russia, which has said it will support no resolution endorsing military intervention in Syria, according to CNN. Russia, which has shown its own openness to facilitating peace in Syria, offered on Monday, January 30, to host negotiations between opposition leaders and the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Moscow, which opposition leaders refused, according to le Point.

Five weeks before presidential elections, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin published an economic plan as the already two-term president seeks another term as leader of a Russia seemingly growing increasingly wary of his power, TF1 and le Nouvel Observateur reported. In his plan, Putin promised to make state capitalism a priority in an effort to promote greater competitiveness for Russia. Russia’s electoral commission barred on Friday, January 27, Grigory Yavlinsky – a longtime liberal opponent of Putin – and his Yabloko political party from running in the March 4 elections, as covered by the Christian Science Monitor. Growing frustration with Putin’s controlled political system have spurred protest movements, including a march “for honest elections,” organized for February 4. Authorization for this demonstration was denied by Moscow’s city government, raising speculation that increasingly vocal opposition movements could lead to violent interactions with officials in the weeks leading up to the elections, according to Bloomberg

At the 18th summit of the African Union in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Monday, January 30, four rounds of voting failed to provide a two-thirds majority to any candidate for the chairmanship of the Union, as incumbent Gabonese Jean Ping faced foreign South African foreign minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, la Croix and the Guardian reported. Even after Dlamini-Zuma withdrew her candidacy after three rounds of voting, Ping was unable to obtain the necessary majority, meaning he will continue to serve as chair of the African Union until elections can once again be held at the next meeting in July, according to BBC.

An Oslo, Norway, court found two men guilty on Monday, January 30, of plotting terrorist attacks against Jyllands-Posten after the Danish newspaper published caricatures of the Muslim prophet, Mohammed, in 2005, Ouest-France and TIME reported. A third man was found not guilty of plot charges but was found guilty of assisting others in the acquisition of explosives. The three men, arrested in 2010, face jail time ranging from four months to seven years, according to le Nouvel Observateur.

In the Sudanese region of South Kordofan, 29 Chinese workers were captured by Sudanese rebels on Saturday, January 28, le Parisien and the Wall Street Journal reported. On Monday, January 30, Sudanese officials announced that 14 of the workers had been freed and were in good health, though the rest remained in captivity, according to le Nouvel Observateur.