9
May 9th, 2012

Weekly brief

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With 51.62 percent of votes in France’s runoff election against incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, François Hollande was elected on Sunday, May 6, becoming the nation’s first Socialist president since François Mitterand left office in 1995.

France

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With 51.62 percent of votes in France’s runoff election against incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, François Hollande was elected on Sunday, May 6, becoming the nation’s first Socialist president since François Mitterand left office in 1995, the New York Times, the Christian Science Monitor, Libération and le Point reported. Hollande, known for his persona of normalcy, benefitted considerably from the lack of popularity of incumbent Sarkozy and a general discontent with the policies he pursued. A poll taken the day of the elections showed that 52 percent of those who voted for Hollande defined their ballot as a vote against Sarkozy, according to 20 Minutes and the Washington Post. As Hollande’s victory embodied a lack of support for Sarkozy’s domestic policy, CNN and the LA Times explored how Hollande’s election could change France’s relationship with the outside world, as Sarkozy had worked closely with Germany to address the European debt crisis and worked to boost the nation’s military stature through more assertive policy in the Middle East and greater involvement in NATO.

Heading to work on Monday, May 7, President-elect François Hollande announced that he would name his Prime Minister on May 15, the day he is set to assume his role as president of France. Speculation has focused on three potential selections, notably President of the National Assembly Socialist Group Jean-Marc Ayrault, the AP, TF1 and les Echos reported. Hollande said he plans to waste no time in naming his cabinet, and he has already set an appointment with German Chancellor Angela Merkel the day after his inauguration on May 16, to be followed by a meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama before the G8 summit at Camp David, the NATO summit in Chicago, the G20 Summit, and the European Summit all scheduled for the first six weeks of his presidency. The first challenge for Hollande comes as the world considers his forthcoming relationship with Merkel, who has already expressed on Monday, May 7, a refusal to re-examine the austerity pact signed by 25 of 27 European Union members, according to the Telegraph and le Figaro.

A day after becoming the first incumbent French president to lose his re-election campaign since Valéry Giscard d’Estaing in 1981, President Nicolas Sarkozy gathered his electoral committee at the Elysée Palace on Monday, May 7, for an hour long meeting at which Sarkozy announced that he was leaving political life, the AP and le Figaro reported. In addition to voicing a desire to return to a normal life out of the spotlight, Sarkozy said he would not run for election in June’s legislative elections, according to France 24.

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) confirmed in a statement dated Thursday, May 3, that they were holding French journalist Romeo Langlois, who went missing during an attack by FARC rebels on Colombian armed forces being accompanied by Langlois on April 28, CBS reported. As a condition for Langlois’ release, the FARC statement demanded that an international debate be opened on “the freedom to inform,” expressing doubt about the impartiality of journalists who travel alongside the state military, according to the Guardian and le Monde.

United States

U.S. officials announced on Monday, May 7, that the CIA had stopped a plot by Yemen-based al-Qaida operatives to board a United States-bound airplane with a non-metallic explosive device similar to the one detected aboard a Detroit-bound flight on Christmas 2009, Libération and the Washington Post reported. Officials said the device was confiscated before the would-be bomber had made arrangements to board a plane with it. FBI officials described the device as a more sophisticated version of those previously used by al-Qaida, such as the one that failed in 2009, according to CNN and the San Francisco Chronicle.

 While on a three-day visit to India beginning on Sunday, May 6, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lauded efforts by the Indian government to reduce its importation of Iranian oil, though she did not clarify whether the reductions were substantial enough to avoid sanctions proposed toward 12 nations, including India, if they do not significantly cut imports of Iranian oil by June 28, the Wall Street Journal, le Courrier International and the Christian Science Monitor reported. Despite the uncertainty left by vague statements about India’s relations with Iran, Clinton said the relationship between India and the United States had progressed considerably, citing cooperative efforts in diverse fields, according to AFP.

 Days after Newt Gingrich suspended his bid for the Republican presidential nomination on Wednesday, May 2, seemingly clearing the way for Mitt Romney, his last remaining challenger, Ron Paul, took 21 of 24 delegates at the Maine Republican Convention, the LA Times, le Monde and TF1 reported.  While Paul has accumulated only 80 delegates of the 1,144 required to obtain the party’s nomination, as opposed to Romney’s 847, Paul’s efforts and the revitalization of the party’s libertarian faction could complicate Romney’s efforts to undertake the battle with his ultimate opponent, incumbent President Barack Obama, as explored by NPR and Bloomberg.

 As the presidential elections approach and as the state of North Carolina prepares to vote on Tuesday, May 8, on a bill to introduce an amendment to the state constitution banning same-sex marriage, the issue of gay marriage returned to the forefront this week. Vice President Joe Biden said on Sunday, May 6, that he was “absolutely comfortable” with same-sex couples benefiting from the same rights as heterosexual couples, and the following day, Education Secretary Arne Duncan said he supported gay marriage. This makes three members of President Barack Obama’s administration who have publicly shown more forthcoming support for marriage equality than the leader himself, according to MSNBC, le Point, Reuters  and the New York Times. Caroline Kennedy, daughter of former president John Kennedy, joined Democrats to voice their support for gay marriage as she presented the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage award to the three justices of the Iowa Supreme Court who were voted out of their posts after voting unanimously to permit same-sex marriage in the state, according to CBS and the Advocate.

Business & Economics

Markets proved volatile on Monday, May 7, after elections in France and Greece created uncertainty about the impact on financial markets of political shifts across the EuroZones. While European markets generally ended the day in the black, French banks saw considerable declines with drops between four and six percent for BNP Paribas, Société Générale and Crédit Agricole, Reuters and Bloomberg reported. While prepared for the victory of Socialist François Hollande in France in the days leading up to the election on Sunday, May 6, it seems markets could generally give the nation a grace period before determining whether France’s first socialist president in 17 years could prove as much a detriment to the national and global economies as some fear. Standard & Poor’s said his election would have no immediate impact on France’s AA+ note, downgraded from AAA in January, according to the New York Times and 20 Minutes.

 While markets are being patient with France, whose new leader has vowed to promote economic growth, it seems the political turmoil in Greece is creating fear across the continent and beyond as the fall of mainstream parties, the emergence of more radical parties on both sides and the lack of consensus has led many to question whether Greece’s election of discontent could truly lead to a rejection of the international bailout and a departure from the EuroZone, as explored by the Christian Science Monitor and les Echos. Political rhetoric, such as that fromthe far-left Syriza, called on the new Greek government to reject the bailout terms previously agreed upon, furthering market instability in Germany and France, the EuroZone’s largest two economies, according to Bloomberg and le Point.

 U.S. job statistics for April, released on Friday, May 5, came in weaker than economists had hoped. After a strong start to the year, last month’s jobless rate decreased by just 0.1 percent to 8.1 percent, according to the New York Times and le Monde. Economists believe this decrease is not a result of increased hiring but reflects a large number of frustrated Americans leaving the job market, while the Wall Street Journal argued the slow job creation is due in part to cuts in public-sector jobs.

 HSBC, Europe’s largest bank, announced on Tuesday, May 8, that its earnings had risen 26 percent in the first quarter of 2012, as growth in Asia and Latin America made up for the impact of Europe’s economic woes, the New York Times and Boursier reported. The growth in pretax profit rose to $6.8 billion, up from $5.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2012, though HSBC did face a $2.6 billion charge off on the value of its debt, according to le Monde and the San Francisco Chronicle.

International

As France rejected its current leadership in presidential elections on Sunday, May 6, Greece did the same in legislative elections that saw the percentage of mainstream parties in the nation’s 300-seat parliament drop considerably. The majority center-right New Democracy party announced on Monday, May 7, that it had failed in an initial attempt to form a coalition government as uncertainty – and questions about whether the new government would choose to stay in the European Union – loomed over the debt-ridden nation,  NPR, l’Express, le Point and le Nouvel Observateur reported.  Democracy maintained its top spot in the Greek parliament but dropped from 34 to 20 percent of the seats, while Socialists had dropped to 14 from 44 percent in 2009, according to the New York Times. The shift away from mainstream parties saw the rise of more radical movements, such as the far-left Syriza and the far-right neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party, leaving the nation’s leaders uncertain about how to proceed toward a coalition, as covered by le Parisien. Bloomberg explored the political turmoil that has plagued Greece and other European nations since George Papandreou saw a major victory for the Socialist Pasok party in 2009.

 Gunmen affiliated with al-Qaida killed at least 32 Yemeni soldiers on Monday, May 7, when they stormed a military base in the south of the nation.  The attack came hours after the United States reportedly used drones to kill Fahd al-Quso, an al-Qaida operative involved in the 2000 attack of the USS Cole in Yemen, which killed 17 Americans, the Washington Post and Europe1 reported. The attack is linked to ongoing tension between al-Qaida forces in the region and Yemeni government forces backed by the United States, as explored by Reuters and la Croix.

 Vladimir Putin was sworn in for his third term as president of Russia on Monday, May 7, as anti-Putin demonstrations outside the Kremlin starting Sunday, May 6, led to clashes between police and protestors, with at least 450 protesters arrested and at least 20 hospitalized, le Point and the Financial Times reported. On Tuesday, May 8, Dmitry Medvedev, who served as president of Russia for the past four years after Putin’s limit of two consecutive terms was reached, was confirmed as the nation’s prime minister, swapping roles with his replacement and once predecessor, according to Reuters.

 Syria held its first multi-party vote on Monday, May 7, for the nation’s 250-seat parliament, but opponents of the regime of Bashar al-Assad boycotted the elections, claiming the vote was nothing but a sham designed to uphold the Assad’s grip on power as struggles between Assad’s forces and anti-government protesters continue to cause deaths across the nation, the Guardian, le Nouvel Observateur and the LA Times reported. Kofi Annan, leader of a United Nations mission of observers, said the efforts will show minimal increases in respect of the plan to calm tension and violence that has reportedly left more than 9,000 dead in the past 14 months, according to TIME and le Figaro.